‘Separatism’ is something of a ‘dirty’ word in Canadian politics. While often associated with Quebec’s tumultuous political landscape shaped by the Quiet Revolution of the 1960s and culminating in a number of (failed) referendums, the idea of exiting the Canadian Federation has also long appealed to a few Albertans. Citing the province’s supposed conservative worldview, this logic holds that Alberta’s identity is somehow qualitatively different from the rest of Canada. Whereas Quebec relies heavily on support from the rest of Canada, Alberta is perched comfortably atop a mountain of wealth generated from its extensive oil and gas reserves. If liberated from Canada and the shackles of its oppressive transfer/equalization payment schemes, its wealth would remain within its borders, allowing Alberta to simply ‘take care of itself.’ Alberta, in other words, does not need Canada.

            While these ideas have largely remained confined within the province’s boundaries, circulating almost exclusively amongst the more conservative segments of Alberta’s population, they have, in the weeks following the 2025 Canadian federal election, become a topic of national discussion.

            The day following the impressive electoral success of the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith introduced Bill 54, also known as the Election Statutes Amendment Act. This new legislation alters an existing piece of legislation in Alberta known as the Citizen Initiative Act, passed in 2021.

            Under the Citizen Initiative Act, eligible Alberta voters are empowered to propose legislative initiatives, policy initiatives, and even constitutional referendum questions to the government and trigger a provincial vote on the issue. To do this, an eligible Alberta voter must first apply to the chief electoral officer and request to start a petition for their initiative. If approved, the chief electoral officer provides the elector with sheets to collect signatures. For matters relating to legislative and/or policy initiatives, the proponent (i.e., the voter proposing the initiative) must collect signatures from 10% of the registered voters in Alberta. For matters relating to constitutional initiatives, the proponent must collect signatures from 20% of the registered voters in Alberta and in two-thirds of Alberta’s constituencies. Regardless of the type of initiative, proponents are given 90 days to collect the requisite signatures from their fellow Albertans.

            The recently passed Election Statutes Act makes slight adjustments to this ‘citizen-requested initiative’ procedure, essentially lowering the thresholds necessary to trigger a provincial vote. Now, regardless of the initiative proposed, proponents are only required to obtain signatures from 10% of eligible voters who voted in the last general election. Proponents are also now given an additional 30 days to collect these signatures, bringing it to 120 days. Put simply, it is now easier to trigger a citizen-led initiative or constitutional referendum in Alberta.

            Premier Smith was quick to explain that her government would not propose separation to Albertans but would respect Albertans if they chose on their own  to vote on the issue. “To be clear from the outset,” she told reporters, “our government will not be putting a vote on separation from Canada on the referendum ballot.” She continued, “However, if there is a successful citizen-led referendum petition that is able to gather the requisite number of signatures requesting such a question to be put on a referendum, our government will respect the democratic process and include that question on the 2026 provincial referendum ballot…”

            Despite Smith’s claims that her government was not pushing the separatism issue, other actors in the Canadian political sphere expressed both skepticism and concern. As much of Alberta’s territory is covered under Treaties 6, 7, and 8, Indigenous leaders in Alberta vocalized their disdain for Smith’s apparent indifference to their communities’ concerns. The Chiefs of the Sturgeon Lake and Mikisew Cree First Nations issued a widely-circulated cease and desist letter. In the letter, the Chiefs inform Smith that “[t]he province has no authority to supersede or interfere with [Indigenous] Treaties, even indirectly by passing the buck of a ‘citizen’ referendum.’” Additionally, in a recent press conference, Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet spoke on the topic with reporters, joking that Alberta is not a country because it does not have a ‘culture of its own.’ He continued, opining that he was “not certain that oil and gas qualifies to define a culture.”

            In light of these political debates, how fearful should we – as Canadians – be for the continued unity of our country?

            Even if a constitutional referendum on the issue of separation was held in Alberta in 2026, and even if it resulted in overwhelming support, this still would not trigger Alberta’s immediate exit from Canada. As Alberta’s Indigenous leaders pointed out, much would still need to be negotiated regarding lands under federal control. This includes not only lands reserved for Indigenous communities, but also the Banff and Jasper national parks. There are other practical concerns, too. What currency would be used? What about federally-owned buildings? What about the equalization/transfer payment scheme? What about Albertans who do not wish to lose their Canadian citizenship or live in an independent Alberta? So, even in the event of a successful referendum, the only thing that would immediately happen is that Alberta would enter into serious discussions with the federal government.

            We can, however, rest comfortably with the knowledge that recent polling suggests that only 36% of Albertans are actually interested in separation. While not an insignificant percent, this is still relatively far from a clear majority of Albertans. What seems more likely, I think, is that this is really an issue about protecting the province’s oil and gas industry – a defining theme in Alberta politics.

            Indeed, the importance of the oil and gas industries to Alberta’s economy is no secret amongst Canadians; yet few outside Alberta might understand just how important they really are. In 2025, approximately 28% of the province’s budget is estimated to come from oil and gas revenue. Understanding the province’s existential reliance on oil and gas is key to deciphering the purpose of Smith’s separatist threats. At their first meeting in late March 2025, Premier Smith issued a list of demands to Prime Minister Carney. Nearly every demand related to protecting the oil and gas industry in some way:

• Guaranteeing Alberta full access to unfettered oil and gas corridors to the north, east, and west
• Repealing Bill C-69 (aka. “no new pipelines act”)
• Lifting the tanker ban off the B.C. coast
• Eliminating the oil and gas emissions cap, which is a production cap
• Scrapping the so-called Clean Electricity Regulations
• Ending the prohibition on single use plastics
• Abandoning the net-zero car mandate
• Returning oversight of the industrial carbon tax to the provinces
• Halting the federal censorship of energy companies

If these demands are not met within the first six months of Prime Minister Carney’s term, Smith suggested that the consequence would be an “unprecedented national unity crisis.” And now, several months later, following the success of Prime Minister Carney’s Liberal Party, we are apparently watching Smith’s strategy unfold in real time: leverage western alienation to its political extreme by making overtures towards separation in an effort to pressure Ottawa into loosening its grip on the oil and gas industry.

            While it is incredibly unlikely that Alberta will actually manage to separate from Canada, Premier Smith has certainly demonstrated that she – like many of her political predecessors in Alberta – is willing to play tough with Ottawa in order to get what she wants.